The John Palm Show

How do you get fewer hits for you blog? Less interest in what you have to say? Snubbed on the world wide web? Read on and I’ll give you the skinny.

I get about 200 - 250 hits a week. Which is about 1000 a month. Not a lot, but enough to motivate me to keep posting.

I’ve never tried very hard to get hits. I just write about things that are “stuck in my mind”. Writing my thoughts seems to helps me sleep at night. I guess a few people have found it. And although I don’t care to build a huge audience, if no one read my blog I would probably lose interest and quit. So will you.

Here’s how to get NO ONE TO READ YOUR BLOG in 3 easy steps:

1. Write about your cute cuddly kids… in every post. Your kids are the center of your universe and surely we want to know every detail about your latest trip to Sea World.

2. Post pictures, slide shows and more pictures of you handsome, beautiful, well behaved, wonderful, super-duper kids. Can’t get enough of those darlings. (I have a slide show on my blog here. Not on the main page. You only click it if you want.)

3. Put music on your blog that is hard to turn off. Everyone loves web sites that make noise! You love that song and there’s a good chance we will too since you have such exquisite taste and all.

Follow these 3 easy steps and your sure to have no readers in no time.

Shirtless at McDonald’s = You’ve not nothing to lose.

Shirtless at the soup kitchen = You’ve already lost everything.

Shirtless on Oprah = You’re about to hit payday with your new exercise book.

I have no clue what this means. It was supposed to have something to do with how we all look covetously at the guy ahead of us in society’s food chain. All we see is who’s “doing better” than us. Better house. Better whatever. Who ever looks back at the guy behind you… turn around sometime. He may need a hand. Or he may have a knife.

What guy doesn’t like to read whilst on the can?

My wife left the Family Christian Stores catalog in the bathroom. Excellent reading for the above purpose. Light. Lot’s of pictures. And very thought provoking.

Here are some of my random thoughts regarding the Family Christian catalog:

1. The Veggie Tales are the most interesting videos and perhaps the most creative thing ever in the “Christian Retail World”. Period.

2. Don’t even think of buying me a silk tie from this store!

3. Don’t buy me this either (below). Don’t get me wrong… I like these little statues by Willow Tree, but I prefer to admire them on the store’s shelf. I don’t particularly want to own one. And, no offense, but I have even less desire to collect them.

4. I actually would like this Sword Letter Opener for Father’s Day. But I know you’ll get me the statue instead. This thing is cool… Hebrews 4:13.

5. No Christian self help books please. This genre has almost taken the place of the Bible.

6. Max Lucado, take a rest. Man! There’s prolific and then there’s over killed and over exposed. Stop working so hard. Go on a vacation or something. Rent a flat in Italy. Lay out in the sun in Aruba. Spend some of that money.

Check out all these 3:16 products. It’s exhausting, Max… exhausting.

7. Beth Moore is a tough talker, but if you get right up in her face when you meet her at the conference and make intimidating “huffing” noises… she backs right down. Believe me. Or just ask Security a the Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center.

Finally…

8. What the? That big guy with the fro from American Idol is in my Christian Book store? It’s shocking and a bit disturbing to me for some reason. Sorry big guy.

Thank you for your time.

Agricultural commodities (food) makes up a huge part of third world and emerging economies. In India and Bangladesh, consumers spend 60% of their budgets on food. The expenditure rate for food is typically 40% to 50% in most emerging countries. By comparison, food constitutes only 10% of U.S. consumer spending.

The rule thumb is: the poorer the country the higher the expenditure rate for food.

The bottom line is: higher food prices (agricultural commodities) means big trouble for the 3rd world!

The strongest surges between March 2003 and March 2008 have been wheat, 314%; soybeans, 199%; corn, 134%; and sugar, 69%. Our research tells us that these commodity bubbles may not peak until late 2009.

And that’s the good news.

The bad news is that the last part of these bubbles experience price escalation to extreme levels (see internet bubble in 2000 and real estate bubble in 2005).

What is causing this bubble? Read my answer here.

Many say it is the rapidly growing demand from emerging countries such as China and India. Others say it is little more than speculation. The best analysis we have seen comes from Michael Masters, manager of the hedge fund Masters Capital Management, in his testimony before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affaires on May 20, 2008.

Here are some direct quotes from the above (It’s a bit long, but much shorter than the whole report). I strongly encourage you to read the whole thing:

Commodities prices have increased more in the aggregate over the last five years than at any other time in U.S. history. We have seen commodity price spikes occur in the past as a result of supply crises, such as during the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo. But today, unlike previous episodes, supply is ample: there are no lines as the gas pump and there is plenty of food on the shelves…

What we are experiencing is a demand shock coming from a new category of participant in the commodities futures markets: Institutional Investors.  Specifically, these are Corporate and Government Pension Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, University Endowments and other Institutional Investors.  Collectively, these investors now account on average for a larger share of outstanding commodities futures contracts than any other market participant…

Index Speculator demand is distinctly different from Traditional Speculator demand; it arises purely from portfolio allocation decisions. When an Institutional Investor decides to allocate 2% to commodities futures, for example, they come to the market with a set amount of money. They are not concerned with the price per unit; they will buy as many futures contracts as they need, at whatever price is necessary, until all of their money has been “put to work.”  Their insensitivity to price multiplies their impact on commodity markets… [ed: And this provides the perfect recipe for a bubble. Just as during the final stages of the tech boom, for these investors price and supply/demand does not matter].

There is a crucial distinction between Traditional Speculators and Index Speculators:  Traditional Speculators provide liquidity by both buying and selling futures.  Index Speculators buy futures and then roll their positions by buying calendar spreads.  They never sell.  Therefore, they consume liquidity and provide zero benefit to the futures markets…

In the early part of this decade, some institutional investors who suffered as a result of the severe equity bear market of 2000-2002, began to look to the commodity futures market as a potential new “asset class” suitable for institutional investment.  While the commodities markets have always had some speculators, never before had major investment institutions seriously considered the commodities futures markets as viable for larger scale investment programs. Commodities looked attractive because they have historically been “uncorrelated,” meaning they trade inversely to fixed income and equity portfolios.  Mainline financial industry consultants, who advised large institutions on portfolio allocations, suggested for the first time that investors could “buy and hold” commodities futures, just like investors previously had done with stocks and bonds…

According to the CFTC and spot market participants, commodities futures prices are the benchmark for the prices of actual physical commodities, so when Index Speculators drive futures prices higher, the effects are felt immediately in spot prices and the real economy.  So there is a direct link between commodities futures prices and the prices your constituents are paying for essential goods…

In the popular press the explanation given most often for rising oil prices is the increased demand for oil from China. According to the DOE, annual Chinese demandfor petroleum has increased over the last five years from 1.88 billion barrels to 2.8 billion barrels, an increase of 920 million barrels.  Over the same five-year period, Index Speculatorsʼ demand for petroleum futures has increased by 848 million barrels. The increase in demand from Index Speculators is almost equal to the increase in demand from China!

Let’s turn our attention to food prices, which have skyrocketed in the last six months.  When asked to explain this dramatic increase, economists’ replies typically focus on the diversion of a significant portion of the U.S. corn crop to ethanol production.  What they overlook is the fact that Institutional Investors have purchased over 2 billion bushels of corn futures in the last five years.  Right now, Index Speculators have stockpiled enough corn futures to potentially fuel the entire United States ethanol industry at full capacity for a year.  That’s equivalent to producing 5.3 billion gallons of ethanol, which would make America the world’s largest ethanol producer…

Furthermore, commodities futures markets are much smaller than the capital markets, so multi-billion-dollar allocations to commodities markets will have a far greater impact on prices.  In 2004, the total value of futures contracts outstanding for all 25 index commodities amounted to only about $180 billion.  Compare that with worldwide equity markets which totaled $44 trillion, or over 240 times bigger.  That year, Index Speculators poured $25 billion into these markets, an amount equivalent to 14% of the total market…

Index Speculators’ trading strategies amount to virtual hoarding via the commodities futures markets.  Institutional Investors are buying up essential items that exist in limited quantities for the sole purpose of reaping speculative profits…

Think about it this way:  If Wall Street concocted a scheme whereby investors bought large amounts of pharmaceutical drugs and medical devices in order to profit from the resulting increase in prices, making these essential items unaffordable to sick and dying people, society would be justly outraged. 

Why is there not outrage over the fact that Americans must pay drastically more to feed their families, fuel their cars, and heat their homes?

Index Speculators provide no benefit to the futures markets and they inflict a tremendous cost upon society.  Individually, these participants are not acting with malicious intent; collectively, however, their impact reaches into the wallets of every American consumer.

The fact that speculation is a substantial and rising component of the commodity bubble indicates that the trend is likely to continue to accelerate until it goes to extremes. There will be a point at which rising prices substantially impact the rising demand curve both in developed and emerging countries (in other words… they can’t afford food anymore), and that is already occurring to some degree. Hence, we will be monitoring the bubble in commodities for signs that we are nearing a top in emerging and U.S. markets, which probably will occur in early to mid 2009 — but it could occur earlier if this trend continues to escalate without a major break near term.

Until then, we all need to ask ourselves what our part is? At the very least it should make “saying grace” at the dining room table a little more meaningful.

May the Lord provide for those less fortunate than ourselves and may we be a conduit for that provision…

Read the full transcript of Michael W. Masters here [View PDF] , Masters is the Managing Member and Portfolio Manager , Masters Capital Management, LLC

My young cousins were recently lamenting the fact that old people are infiltrating their social networks like Facebook, Twitter and Flickr. Those “old people” are the rock star generation we know as Baby Boomers. Yes, Boomers are “twittering” their every move… where they eat, how they recreate, and dropping names of the big hitters with whom they hang.

Baby Boomer is twittering: Kayaking with Engelbert down Snake River laughing and discussing my overactive bladder problem.

Baby Boomer is twittering: Riding my Harley listening to Led Zepplin on my new iPhone 16GB and just passed Tom Brokaw!

As the boomers move in the kids will inevitably move out. Where? Somewhere the old people aren’t. The kids will always stay one step ahead.

Want to avoid the omnipresent Baby Boomers (at least for now) then try these:

Virb - Generally known as the designer’s MySpace, Virb lives up to the hype by offering sleek and easy-to-customize profile design.

Trig - Trig is a sweet sight for the sore eyes of a web designer/hipster who spent too many days wailing about horrid MySpace profiles. Mostly music oriented.

Pounce - Pownce has been categorized as everything: from web-based IM to a forum, so I guess that simply calling it a social network isn’t that far off. Taking the Twitter recipe and perfecting it, Pownce added some of its own flavor to the mix, and one of the features I really like about it are skins.

Pure Volume - Neat and tidy are the words that first come to mind when you first look at Purevolume. The site is purely music-oriented and the profiles are divided between artists and listeners.

Shelfari - Shelfari is a community of book lovers which you can browse by user, by interest groups or by books themselves.

Keep it on the down low… the boomers are everywhere…

I am skeptical of most new technology, but Facebook really works! Here are some thoughts on technology…

Technology that doen’t work - worst inventions:

1. Digital Cameras - I spend triple the time on photos now.

2. YouTube - time waster, but great way introduce your family to soft core porn.

3. Computers Built Into Appliances - how did we live without a plasma screen of the fridge?

4. Smart Homes - it’s just way too much effort to flip a switch.

Technology that WORKS - world’s best inventions:

1. DVRs - watch on my time frame, not the networks.

2. Facebook - simple and really works in finding old friends.

3. Cellular Phones - who could live without one? however, in 20 years we’ll probably all have ear tumors.

4. Salt Chlorine Generators - great! if you have one you know what I mean. makes owning a pool easy.

Technology (low tech)  wish list - someone invent these:

1. Oprah Deletion Device - erases Oprah shows that wife records on DVR and makes it look like an accident. what? Oprah got erased? I’m so sorry honey.

2. Security Briefs - to insure that NO ONE will touch your valuables… ever.

3. Electronic Yodelling Pickle! - you know you want one.

4. Butter Stick - enough said!

Pioneer Human Services (Seattle, WA) is a business with a purpose. They are Entrepreneurs Who Are Changing the World according to FAST Company.

What do they do? Read it here.

It is an incredible company!

I wrote a satirical post about appropriate ages to give your children razor sharp weapons here. It originated from a photo of my oldest son holding a two-handed sword.

That single post has generated more search result hits on my blog than any other post! What? Are there really that many people searching google for the appropriate age to give their son a pocket knife or other sharp weapon?

That’s kinda scary but true.

On a personal note (and not in any way to be construed as advice) I have given my 3 of my boys their very own pocket knife. I’m a dad of 4 boys. I’m gonna let them be boys. Blood and all. I’ve trained them on how to handle a pocket knife and willing to put up with some minor cuts (and so is my wife).

Here are some other tips if your crazy enough to follow my example and give your son a pocket knife at an early age.

My humble and sometimes wrong opinion is that there is enough out there turning our boys into over-emotional, in-touch, feminized, sissy boys. Just make sure you watch the animated cartoon below before you give your son a pocket knife.

Pocket Knife for Kids Animated Cartoon

Good luck!

Your home remodel project is very important to you. The nuances of hand-made cabinetry, the price negotiations with your sub-contractor, and the magic of adding light to your space are oh so interesting. Two hours chatting about your color pallet must seem like minutes. Please go on, dear lady. I want to hear more. I want to sit at your feet and soak it in. Inscribe it on my heart. And please, write down the extra details so I can read it at home when I’m on the can.

Call it what you will: preaching, teaching, sermonizing, instruction or simply lectures. The modern church is obsessed with one man (and very rarely women) standing up in front of a group with something to say.

Granted, part of the function of a body of believers is to equip believers to do the work of the ministry AND to preach the gospel to the ends of the earth. However, are these functions best accomplished through the lecture method?

The “lecture method” of teaching has become so commonplace with the modern church and society that most people can’t even name another method. Can you name another method of teaching?

Here are two for your consideration:

The teacher as a guide and stimulator, not a lecturer, nor a dispenser of information. For much of human history, educational methods were largely informal, and consisted of children imitating or modelling their behavior on that of their elders, learning through observation and play. Call that “learning by example” or the “demonstrative method”. This is probably what is referred to in Deuteronomy 11:18-21.

The teacher as one who presents questions and stimulates debate, not just giving easy or simplistic answers to often complex questions. Plato describes a system of instruction that he felt would lead to an ideal state. In his Dialogues, Plato describes the Socratic method. This method is dialectic. Meaning there is a dialog (back and forth) between people exchanging ideas and arguments about a topic or idea.

 As I sit there ever Sunday morning and squirm in my seat like a 3 year old, I ask:

What’s with the Church’s obsession with lectures?

• It’s efficient - conducive to mega church ministry building.
• It works well under time constraints - other methods simply take too long and we don’t have that kind of time to burn.
• It’s comfortable - one guy does all the work, the rest simply sit there, listen and then off to the super buffet.
• It can be kept “light and fluffy” - and palatable for the masses.

The bottom line

The Sunday Morning Lecture may not be the best way of teaching, but it’s here to stay. Change always comes slowly, especially with religious institutions. The Church’s obsession with lectures will not end until we come to terms with the following:

• our obsession with experts - and what I call The Reverse Reformation back to Papal/Pastoral (read Pope) authority.
• our obsession with knowledge - knowing does not necessarily lead to doing, but it’s a heck of a lot easier.
• our obsession with spiritual gift of teaching - if I hear one more time how much so-and-so just loooooves Pastor Jeff’s teaching (substitute Pastor Tom, Dick or Harry) I’m gonna [censored]. Man, nobody liked Jesus’ teaching. He caused major division and discomfort every time He spoke.

Until we lose our obsessions, I’ll see you at the Sunday morning lecture. I’m the one that’s fidgeting like a like a 3 year old.